A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
